There are no two ways about it—lately, the US market has been behaving in a manner similar to some Middle Eastern markets. It appears hesitant, lacking confidence, and unwilling to take responsibility for the emotions driving its fluctuations. The prevailing theme in the US market as of late is to bite the hand that feeds it.

What this means is that surveillance, mass manipulation of opinion, market regulations, and interference from secret agencies have always existed. However, their effects are now being reflected in the Indian market at an all-time high. This is further compounded by the US market reeling from the bad decision-making of the previous administration, which had a leftist approach but was also taking funds from agencies with deep ties to the Republican side of the equation.

As far as the technological superiority of the US market goes, it remains one of its major saving graces. The US still has somewhat untapped potential in oil and oil alternatives, along with new lithium reserves that fuel stock market optimism. However, the clock is not currently in favour of the Republicans or the small investor.

What this means is that technological superiority alone cannot fully sustain the relationship between the US market and foreign markets. If we account for the direct effects and time-series impact of the US market on other foreign markets, the increasing tariffs imposed on other economies will not signal good health for the stock market. The cushion of technological superiority and the strength of US private players may not be enough to absorb this shock.

Global Market Trends and Economic Disruptions

Poor economic equations, bad decision-making, and decreasing spending power can be observed across various countries, particularly in Asia. This includes nations such as Korea, China, and several Middle Eastern countries that are on the other end of the technology spectrum and at the maturity stage of the product life cycle—the product here being oil.

The younger generation, in particular, is struggling. They are either unemployed or working multiple jobs, yet financial independence remains out of reach within their lifetime. With high levels of education and an acute awareness of political illusions, they are not blind supporters of any regime and are hesitant to disrupt the labour market through sheer effort alone.

In this context, the labour market is being manipulated by ruling parties, who create artificial shortages in regions that do not support their power. However, this is unlikely to happen in Asian markets, which are known for their surplus of cheap labour.

India-Russia Relations: An Economic Bromance

The India-Russia relationship is currently at a level reminiscent of the 1950s. News articles, advertisements, and economic discussions all highlight this strengthening bond.

This relationship benefits both countries in multiple ways. India provides cheap labour and agricultural products that Russia cannot grow due to its cold climate. In return, Russia supplies India with oil, energy, electricity, and mass-produced goods. While Russia’s agricultural production is limited to a maximum of six months in the colder regions, innovation continues. A recent example is Russia producing milk from green peas—an innovation akin to India’s production of soya bean and peanut milk in South India.

From a technological standpoint, Russia possesses many secret, well-hidden, and copyrighted technologies that it is willing to share with India. However, this exchange depends on the ability of the Indian currency to become globally negotiable, similar to the US dollar or Bitcoin, or the continuation of barter agreements.

India’s Energy and Technology Strategy

Currently, India is unwilling to drastically reduce its dependence on coal and oil. Indian consumers do not resonate with the idea of electric vehicles, often perceived as “video games on wheels.” Hydrogen internal combustion engines still face excessive red tape, and private players require greater freedom to push their ambitions. As a result, India will continue its oil diplomacy with Russia and neighbouring countries and maintain coal diplomacy with Australia, New Zealand, and other resource-rich nations.

Regarding China, while evidence is not easily available, there are indications of an underlying positive relationship, particularly in technological synergy. This applies to products that are not selling well in China due to changes in middle-class spending habits, shrinkflation, and deflation. Economic cooperation between India and China may improve once good border discipline is achieved.

Market Corrections and Small Investor Strategies

Historically, every four and a half years, a significant shift or correction occurs in the market. Whether the upcoming correction will be severe enough to accelerate the release of new technologies remains uncertain. Many innovations are being delayed due to red tape, cartel influence, and undisclosed safety concerns.

So how should small investors navigate this chaos? The answer lies in sticking to fundamental stocks: energy stocks, new technology stocks, and stocks related to nuclear corporations.

For instance, ITC (Indian Tobacco Corporation) is diversifying into plastic recycling. It now manufactures products such as benches, buckets, and chairs from segregated and recycled plastic waste. This means that while tobacco consumption will not significantly decline, ITC’s stock position is likely to remain stable—neither exceptionally good nor exceptionally bad.

Conclusion

The global stock market landscape is shifting due to political, economic, and technological factors. While the US market struggles with regulatory interference and political instability, India and Russia are strengthening their economic ties. The role of China in this equation remains uncertain but leans towards technological synergy.

For small investors, the key to navigating these turbulent times is to invest in energy, new technology, and nuclear stocks. The economic game between India, Russia, and the USA is unfolding, and only time will reveal its long-term impact.

We at Asia Pacific Institute of Management encourage innovative thinking like this with an ethical paradigm. This is why we are considered a top rated PGDM College in Delhi and in North India. We encourage you to connect with us and grow at one of the best MBA / PGDM colleges in Delhi.

Note: This blog was written by a faculty member of the Asia Pacific Institute of Management

Keywords: India Russia stock market relations, US market economic instability, India-Russia economic synergy, Best stocks for small investors 2024, Future of oil and energy diplomacy, Technological advancements in Russia and India, Market corrections and stock investments, ITC stock market analysis, Labour market trends in Asia, Emerging economic partnerships